On April 8th, 2020, Columbia Global Centers | Istanbul hosted Tayfun Bayazıt, Chairman of Marsh McLennan Group, Turkey & Bayazıt Consulting Services, for a live webinar on “How will the COVID-19 pandemic impact the global economy, and specifically emerging markets and Turkey?” in conversation with Ipek Cem Taha, Istanbul Center Director.
Over 200 participants joined the talk, where Mr. Bayazıt talked about a wide range of topics, including the global “preparedness” for the pandemic, the stimulus-response by the US and the EU, implications for emerging markets including Turkey, the effects on the financial sector, and the future of globalization and its implications for Turkey and the emerging markets.
Some highlights from his talk include the following:
Mr. Bayazıt noted that for sustainable growth to occur in Turkey, it needs to first look at sustainable financial models. It has strong fundamentals: a young, dynamic population; experience in living through many crises, and its financials.
He also noted that the impact of the coronavirus on emerging markets will range from 15 to 35%, and that Turkey will be somewhere in the middle of that range. Vital sectors like tourism, textiles, automotive and spare parts will be the hardest hit.
He also noted that at the beginning of the year, global growth forecasts were 2 to 2.5% and 2020 was expected to be a good year. However, now with the virus, we are looking at a sharp decrease in Q2 and Q3, and ending the year in negative territory at -2.5%.