New Geopolitics of the Black Sea

How has the Russian invasion of Ukraine affected the Black Sea region and its role in European and global security?

An April panel discussion in Athens, hosted by the Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy, Columbia Global Center Athens, and the Harriman Institute, explored the evolving dynamics of security and geopolitics in this rapidly transforming geopolitical space. 

Panelists stressed that the region cannot be understood in isolation; rather, interlinkages between Europe, the South Caucasus and Central Asia make the region a strategic bridge among continents. They asserted that the war in Ukraine triggered a long-term strategic shift, not just a temporary crisis, with implications for regional and global order. As such, the when the war ends, it will likely leave behind questions about the future of the region's military, economic, and institutional arrangements, including NATO's role.

Alex Cooley, Claire Tow Professor of Political Science at Barnard College, reflected on the broader implications of the war, emphasizing that its consequences extend far beyond Ukraine, reshaping European security and regional alignments for years to come. He highlighted the need to consider not just immediate security concerns, but also long-term interdependencies and cooperation frameworks.

Philippe Perchoc, Director, Europe at IRSEM, discussed how our understanding of geography has evolved: "We used to think of geography through maps — but today, understanding the sea, connectivity, and circulation is essential to understanding how everything is interconnected.”

Joshua Kucera, senior analyst for the South Caucasus at the International Crisis Group, focused on the strategic importance of the South Caucasus and its role in emerging trade and transit corridors. Kucera described the area as a critical hub linking Europe and Asia, particularly in the context of alternative trade corridors.